(EC23L) and (EC18A or M10B or M10C) Marlon Tracey

ECON3031 : Probability and Distribution Theory

Course Description This course examines the basic concepts of modern probability theory and its application.  Students will be introduced to probability theory as an effective tool for economic and social analysis. The course will explore the mathematical and empirical concepts on probability.  Additionally the explore probability distributions through practical applications. Pre-Requisites: EC16A - Introductory Statistics EC18A - Calculus 1 EC23L - Statistical Methods 1     Prescribed Texts John E. Freund’s Mathematical Statistics with Applications, 7th edition (2004). Recommended Texts Mathematical Statistics for Economics and Business (1996). Course Assessment "Teach it to know it” Assignments:      5% Exit Slips:                                               5%  Mini-case Study:                                   5%  Mid-semester exam:                             25%  Final Examination:                                 60%       NOTE: 1. All exams will be closed book, close notes and close neighborhoods. 2. You are responsible for the material covered in the class and the relevant chapters in the book. 3. Hard work pays. You will not be able to pass the exam if you do not attend all lectures and understand the material well. 4. Selective study and going through old exams might help but it will not help you passing my course. 5. If you are disciplined, serious and ready to work with a challenging teacher, this the right course for you. 6. I will take attendance before a couple of selective lectures to assign points for class participation. If you are present in class the time I take attendance, you get points else you don’t. 7.  I reserve the right to change the course outline, or the sequence of presentations without notice. :1. All exams will be closed book, close notes and close neighborhoods.2. You are responsible for the material covered in the class and the relevant chapters in the book.3. Hard work pays. You will not be able to pass the exam if you do not attend all lectures and understand the material well.4. Selective study and going through old exams might help but it will not help you passing my course.5. If you are disciplined, serious and ready to work with a challenging teacher, this the right course for you. 6. I will take attendance before a couple of selective lectures to assign points for class participation. If you are present in class the time I take attendance, you get points else you don’t.7.  I reserve the right to change the course outline, or the sequence of presentations without notice.   Course Outline Introduction                                                                              2.1  Axioms of probability                                                                2.2 – 2.5  Conditional probability, Independence                            2.6 – 2.7  Bayes’ theorem                                                                        2.8  Probability distributions and densities                             3.1 – 3.4  Multivariate distributions                                                           3.5 – 3.7  Expectations and moments                                                        4.1 – 4.3, 4.6 – 4.8  Special distributions – discrete random variables                        5.3 – 5.4, 5.7