SUMMER 2003GEOHAZARDS COURSE AT UWI, MONA - page 028

Prepared and compiled by Rafi Ahmad, Unit for Disaster Studies,
Department of Geography and Geology,
University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston 7, Jamaica

Box 5, continued:
JAMAICA

1. Affected Population and Damage to Social Sectors.
Even though the loss of life was limited to 45 reported deaths, 500,000 people lost their homes and approximately 280,000 houses—almost 55 percent of the housing stock—were damaged. Of these 14,000 or 5%, were totally destroyed and 64,000 were seriously damaged.

2. Impact on the Economy and Damage to Productive Sectors.
The Planning Institute of Jamaica estimated the total direct damage at US$956 million. Nearly half was accounted for by losses from agriculture, tourism, and industry; 30 percent from housing, health, and education infrastructure; and 20 percent from economic infrastructure. The economic projections for 1988 had to be adjusted dramatically, to allow for expected losses of US$130 million in export earnings, and more than US$100 million in tourism earnings; therefore, instead of the expected 5 percent growth in GDP, a decline of 2 percent was projected. Other estimates were for increases in inflation (30 percent), government public expenditures (US$200 million), and public sector deficit ( from 2.8 percent to 10.6 percent of GDP).
As expected, the economic activity most affected was agriculture, with the total destruction of banana and broiler production and of more than 50 percent of the coffee and coconut crops. Capitol losses to the sector were estimated at J$0.7 billion. According to some calculations, the loss of revenue through 1992 would be US$214 million.
Other productive sectors were also affected seriously. Manufacturing suffered J$600 million (in 1989 dollars) in losses, mainly from a decline of 12 percent in its exports. Tourism lost US$90 million in foreign exchange, with 5 percent fewer visitor arrivals in the third quarter of 1988 than during the same time period in 1987. Loss of electricity decreased bauxite production by 14.2 percent for that quarter compared to the third quarter of the previous year, and alumina exports declined by 21 percent.

3. Damage to Natural Resources
The coastal resources of Jamaica suffered extensive damage from hurricane forces. It is estimated that 50 percent of the beaches were seriously eroded, with the northeast coast being the most affected. An estimated 60 percent of all the trees in the mangrove areas were lost, 50 percent of the oyster culture was unsalvageable, and other non-measurable harm occurred to coral reefs and the water quality of the island (Bacon, 1989).


BLO 200105118 - - - COMMENTS ? - - - next page - - - Table of Contents