Lecture# 16 Example of public awareness for an imminent hurricane

Should we worry about Georges?
In this section we revisit hurricane Georges. Let us go back on this to 1998 when hurricane George is in the neighbourhood. It is appropriate at this time to provide information that may help citizens and officials to face some of the hurricane related emergencies, should they arise. Hurricane threats include hurricane winds, rainfall, landslides, riverine flooding, and storm surge (coastal flooding). The characteristics of the hurricanes, its track, and the topography of the land determine the level of damage. It is difficult to say at this point in time as to how close Georges will come to Jamaica. Based on the present projections and models, hurricane pundits have suggested that Georges will move on a track that will take it towards Cuba. However, this situation may change. It appears more than likely that the northern sections of the island may experience hurricane related, above normal rainfall that may trigger landslides. Storm surge may lead to localized coastal flooding. Hurricanes Georges and Gilbert (which made a landfall on Jamaica on September 12, 1988) share one unique feature, in that both kept a remarkably straight track over thousands of kilometres of forward motion.

I would like to especially point out that in January 1998 a frontal trough caused above normal rainfall in Portland. The Fellowship area in Rio Grande valley received some 20.8mm of rainfall on 3rd January and 148.8mm on 4th January. This rainfall triggered landslides (debris flows and mudflows) which caused serious damage and left four persons dead and several others injured. A number of human settlements and infrastructure were affected by the combined effect of flooding and landslides. We must keep this experience in mind when evaluating threats from Georges. Moreover, the rainfall in the last few weeks is likely to have created high levels of soil-moisture and further rainfall may trigger a widespread landslide activity in Portland and St.Mary.