Peter-John Gordon, GUEST COLUMNISTThis series of articles comes out of work done for the Education Cluster of the 50/50 project spearheaded by the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies at University of the West Indies, Mona.This project is a reflection on the first 50 years of independence in the anglophone Caribbean, and preparation for the next 50 years.Having discussed our model high school in Part 1 ('What's the real cost of running a high school?' - June 10, 2012) and our model primary school in Part 2 ('Counting the costs of learning' - June 24, 2012), we now move in this third and final part to the generalising over the entire secondary and primary systems.Costing of the Entire Secondary SystemUsing our estimate of $184,348 as the cost of educating each secondary student (see Part 1), we estimate the cost of educating the total existing secondary student population for a year. Here, we take as given the current attrition rate in the secondary system. We also simulate the replication of our model school throughout the secondary system and cost it. In order to do this, we assume:1) All secondary students are educated in exclusively designated secondary institutions;2) The average of the grade seven and grade eight population is taken as the 'normal' cohort of students entering the secondary system each year, and we project that population over five years of secondary schooling;3) Exactly 62.5 per cent of the grade 11 cohort is promoted into sixth form for two years (grades 12 and 13).4) Repetition rate is held at the current level of 1.125 per cent.We simulate a grades seven to 11 population of 234,800. We assume a sixth-form population of 58,700. This would mean a total high-school population of 293,500. If we allow repeating at the current rate of 1.125 per cent, this would move the high-school population to 297,200.Number of Students Total Cost $millionExisting 246,975 45,530Simulation 297,200 54,788The Estimates of Expenditure for the fiscal year 2011-12 had the Government of Jamaica allocating $22.744 billion to the secondary sector. This sum represents 50 per cent of what we estimate it would take to educate existing secondary-school students, according to the model we outlined in the first instalment in this series.If we were able to retain the entire secondary-age population for grades seven to 11, and a sixth-form population of 20 per cent of the entire secondary-school system, the current allocation would amount to 41.5 per cent of the required funding.There is a general misconception that the education tax is sufficient to fund education in Jamaica and it is being diverted to other uses. In 2009-10, the education tax collected amounted to 16.8 per cent of total government expenditure on education. The highest contribution of the education tax to Government's expenditure on education was 24.6 per cent in 2003-04.Cost sharing must be considered. If parents were asked to bear directly 10 per cent of the cost of a child's education at high school, this would require a payment of $18,435 per annum. A payment plan where parents pay in three instalments would mean a payment of $6,145 each term per child. A 15 per cent contribution would mean $27,653 per year, or $9,218 per term. The government would have to assist those who are unable to pay.Canteens can be outsourced, with a concessionaire fee paid to the school. We estimate a concessionaire fee of approximately $10 million per annum. Schools could run these canteens themselves, but this would divert human resources away from the main enterprise of the school (education) to operating a food store.With 50 per cent of the cost coming from the government, 10 per cent from cost sharing and four per cent from the canteen, there would be a 36 per cent deficit. If the cost sharing was 20 per cent, the deficit would be 26 per cent.Some amount of deficit will still exist, probably somewhere between 30 per cent and 40 per cent. It might be impossible to close this gap financially and, therefore, it will be closed in terms of quality, i.e., we might not be able to get to our model school, but must be satisfied at this time with something less.Funding prospects for the secondary system will improve with overall economic expansion. If the economy grows on average by three per cent per annum, all other things remaining constant. In nine years, the government would be able to spend 30 per cent more on education than it currently spends (if the average growth rate is two per cent, it will take 14 years). Economic growth not only implies that the government is able to spend more, but also that parents are in a better position to contribute a larger share of the cost of their children's education. It might, therefore, not be unrealistic to think that the country, over the next 10 to 20 years, will be in a position to finance a more equitable high-quality secondary system.Costing of the Entire Primary SystemCurrently, there are 273,802 primary students (grades one to six) distributed as follows:Primary Schools 191,557All-Age Schools 33,101Primary & Junior High 33,924Total Public Primary System 256,582Preparatory 15,220Total 273,802We are concerned with the public education system. Some parents will choose private education for their children. At an annual cost of $149,655 per student (discussed in Part 2), the entire public primary system would cost $38.698 billion.Currently, 3.4 per cent (8,789) of the primary students in the public system repeat a grade annually (3.0 per cent - primary; 5.5 per cent - all-age; 3.5 per cent - primary and junior high). Allowing for such a repeat rate adds $1.315 billion to the primary budget, i.e. if there were no repeaters, the annual primary-school budget would be approximately $37,383 billion. The following table (on Page F11) summarises this information.It might be cheaper to put in place mechanisms which reduce repeaters than incurring the cost of $1.315 billion annually to accommodate them.The Estimates of Expenditure for the fiscal year 2011-12 had the Government of Jamaica allocating $21.854 billion to the primary education sector. This represents 56.5 per cent of our estimated cost of what it should take to educate the students currently in the public primary system.The notion of a 'free' primary education system has been practised in Jamaica for a very long time. This has led to a sparsity of resources. Approximately 5.6 per cent of the children of primary-school age are being educated in the private sector (prep schools).Politically, it might be impossible to impose user fees at the primary level. The resourcing of this sector might be more dependent on improvements in public finances than the secondary or tertiary levels. Political constraints do, however, affect economic and social outcomes. If it is politically impossible to charge fees at the primary level, the country might have to live with an underfunded primary system, with huge differences and outcomes between different sections of the primary system.For ease of comparison, we present below the per-student cost of our model high school and our model primary school. (See table below).It costs 20 per cent more to educate a secondary student in our model high school than it costs to educate a primary student in our model primary school. The big differences between the per-student costs in high and primary schools are in the areas of administrative expenses, co-curriculum activity and maintenance, which are 100 per cent, 60 per cent and 90 per cent higher, respectively.Larger space per student in high school implies higher per-student utility bills and higher per-student usage of cleaning material. High-school students are likely to consume more stationery than primary-school students. Security cost per student is also likely to be higher in high schools than in primary schools.High-school co-curriculum activities are more expensive per student than primary-school activities. Since each high school student occupies more space and, in particular, more specialised space than a primary-school student, maintenance cost will be significantly higher.Peter-John Gordon is a lecturer in the Department of Economics, UWI (Mona). Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com [1] and pjmgordon@hotmail.com [2].Click here [3] for more details.