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Caribbean Journal of Education

The Prediction of Academic Success: An Interim Report

Pages: 
43-58
Publication Date: 
January 1981
Issue: 
Abstract: 

Prediction-type research deals, in a general sense, with the functional relations between a criterion of success and events occurring before. One chooses a number of tests or measures for tryout, and then determines their predictive effectiveness in respect of the designated criterion. In this investigation, the main focus is to enquire into the extent to which measures of a student's ability, coupled with other related inputs (the "events occurring before") predict success or failure in an academic course of study. The methodology employed is that of a longitudinal study begun in 1975, concerned with tracing the level of academic performance of a group of Jamaican students from High School through University. At time of writing, these students are completing their third (and for some, final) year at University; hence this interim report deals mainly with salient points of their High School history, focussing on the predictive value of selected variables (including the General Certificate of Education “Ordinary” level results) on performance at "Advanced'' level. Data have been subjected to multiple regression computations in attempting to arrive at the best predictors of “A” level performance.

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