ABSTRACT

Using two different attack rates, 20% and 30%, the paper attempts to project several possible outcomes for the Jamaican economy in the event of a severe pandemic. In addition to forecasting the possible loss in man hours for the economy, the study uses the Monte Carlo modelling technique to provide estimates of the death and hospitalization rates among the 0–19, 20–64 and 65+-year age cohorts while extra-polating the demand for healthcare providers.