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D RamjeeSingh

An Intense Influenza Pandemic – Possible Subtype of H5N1 Its Implications for Jamaica

The study seeks to quantify the possible economic impact in terms of loss in work hours, death and hospitalization rates and cost to the economy if there were to be an outbreak of some strain of the H5N1 virus which is considered to be highly pathogenic and extremely lethal.


Using two different attack rates, 20% and 30%, the paper attempts to project several possible outcomes for the Jamaican economy in the event of a severe pandemic. In addition to forecasting the possible loss in man hours for the economy, the study uses the Monte Carlo modelling technique to provide estimates of the death and hospitalization rates among the 0–19, 20–64 and 65+-year age cohorts while extra-polating the demand for healthcare providers.

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e-Published: 01 Oct, 2013
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