The complete rupture of a recently discovered fault line in the Kingston Harbour could generate a 5.8 to 6.9 magnitude earthquake, potentially having serious implications for the capital city located less than five kilometres away, according to a recent study.

The study, Neotectonics of Southeast Jamaica Derived From Marine Seismic Surveys and Gravity Cores, published in the journal Tectonics, found that the fault is an extension of the Bull Bay Strike-Slip Fault within the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault Zone, which extends to the island of Hispaniola.

Lead researcher in the study, Jamaican Dr Vashan Wright, explained in an interview with The Gleaner on Wednesday that because there was no previous record of the fault’s existence, buildings already constructed could be at risk.

“Kingston is very close to this fault system that could generate a moderate to large earthquake, and one of the things is that because this fault system wasn’t previously known, there was no way to account for it in any maps to predict what ground shaking should be like in Kingston for specific types of earthquakes,” said Wright, who is visiting researcher at the University of Texas, Austin.

He added: “The implication is that the engineers don’t know about this, and, therefore, it is not included in the models that define how strong your buildings need to be, and if it is not, then that could be potentially problematic … . Maybe the buildings are already strong enough, but maybe they aren’t.”

See full story below.