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Estimated Effects of Climate Variables on Transmission of Malaria, Dengue and Leptospirosis within Georgetown, Guyana

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Objective: To analyze meteorological data (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) and vector borne diseases (malaria, dengue and leptospirosis) to determine trends that may exist between and among variables within the Georgetown area.

Design and Methods: This study took on a retrospective approach which used data from the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Agriculture, Hydro-meteorological Department to assess the true nature of the relationship between climate and vector borne diseases within Georgetown area. Correlation and regression analysis was done using SPSS 13 and JMP.

Results: The results yielded weak positive correlation between climate variables and vector borne disease with strongest correlation between P. falciparum and P. malariae. Leptospirosis showed positive correlation with humidity and dengue showed positive correlation with all three climate variables measured. Projections showed that with a 1o increase in temperature, 1% increase in relative humidity and 50mm increase in rainfall there were be significant increases in malaria and leptospirosis.

Conclusion: There has been theories that suggest a connection between climate variable and vector borne disease but conclusive evidence does not exist. In this present study the need for research that yields more unwavering results are highlight. There is no doubt that climate variables influence vector borne diseases. Therefore, it is recommended that an interdisciplinary approach be taken to ensure reliability and foster a better understanding between climate variables and vector borne disease.

07 Jul, 2017
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e-Published: 07 Jul, 2017


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